China's Nuclear Forces and Their Significance to India

The Indian nuclear program is a response to a perceived politico-strategic threat from China as opposed to a military-operational one that New Delhi began after perceiving an “ultimatum” from China in 1965. Consequently, India is in the process of acquiring an assured second-strike capability vis-à-vis China to meet the requirements of general deterrence. While India has always been concerned about the Sino-Pakistani nuclear/missile nexus, China has become wary of the growing military ties between the United States and India in recent years, especially because of the military implications of the US-India civil nuclear deal. Given the growing conventional military gap between the two states, India is not lowering its nuclear threshold to meet the Chinese conventional challenge. Instead, India is upgrading its conventional military strategy from dissuasion to deterrence against China. While the overall Sino-Indian nuclear relationship is stable, it will be challenged as China acquires advanced conventional weapons that blur the distinction between conventional and nuclear conflict.     

Pakistan's Evolving Nuclear Weapon Posture

This essay provides an overview of the ongoing quantitative and qualitative changes in Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and their impact on deterrence stability vis-à-vis India. Prominent among these trends is a major expansion in fissile material production that enables the manufacture of lighter and more compact warheads optimized for battlefield missions; the development of cruise missiles and shorter-range ballistic missiles possessing dual-use capabilities; and a greater emphasis in doctrinal pronouncements on the need for strike options geared to all levels of conflict. Although these trends pose problematic ramifications for the risks of unauthorized and inadvertent escalation, deterrence stability in South Asia is not as precarious as many observers fear. The challenges of fashioning a robust nuclear peace between India and Pakistan cannot be lightly dismissed, however, and policy makers would do well to undertake some reinforcing measures.     

Is the Indian Nuclear Tiger Changing Its Stripes?

Sixteen years after stepping out of the nuclear closet, India's nuclear posture, some of its operational practices, and hardware developments are beginning to mimic those of the original five nuclear weapon states. Several proliferation scholars in the United States contend that India's national security managers are poised to repeat the worst mistakes of the superpowers’ Cold War nuclear competition, with negative consequences for deterrence, crisis, and stability in South Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. This article takes a contrarian view. It dissects the best available data to show why the alarmist view is overstated. It argues that not only are the alarmists’ claims unsupported by evidence, their interpretation of the skeletal and often contradictory data threatens to construct the very threat they prophesize.     

一类随机生态-流行病系统的分析

对一类食饵染病的随机食饵-捕食者系统,应用伊藤公式,给出系统均衡解的全局随机渐近稳定的条件,并通过数值模拟对理论结果进行论证.     

基于视景模拟的无人机导弹发射仿真

无人机单侧导弹发射后,无人机重量特性、重心位置、气动特性发生变化并同时产生附加的干扰力矩,无人机需要在控制系统作用下尽快恢复稳态飞行。通过在Matlab/Simulink中建立无人机六自由度非线性力学模型、控制系统模型、发动机模型、重力模型、标准大气模型、flight gear软件接口等,模拟仿真无人机单侧导弹发射过程,同时将仿真结果进行可视化视景输出,确保无人机系统平台在导弹发射过程中无人机能够很快恢复稳定姿态并按照预定轨迹飞行。视景模拟仿真结果表明：该无人机平台能够顺利完成导弹的安全发射。     

具有时滞的比率型Chemostat模型的全局稳定性

研究一类具有时滞的比率型功能性反应的Chemostat模型。研究了模型的边界平衡点和正平衡点的局部稳定性以及Hopf分支的存在性;利用比较定理证明了边界平衡点的全局稳定性;通过构造Liapunov泛函给出了保证系统正平衡点全局稳定的充分条件;并通过数值模拟验证了理论结果。     

平流层飞艇强迫对流特性数值仿真分析

强迫对流换热特性对平流层飞艇热状态有重要影响。以平流层飞艇流线型封闭囊体为研究对象,基于囊体内部纯导热传热的假设,采用计算流体力学方法建立平流层飞艇外部流场三维数值模型,对飞艇外部强迫对流换热特性进行仿真分析,得到了不同太阳照射角度、风速和攻角条件下的飞艇表面温度分布和内部平均温度变化规律,为平流层飞艇热状态预测和热控设计提供参考依据。     

高超声速变形飞行器翼面变形模式分析

为提高高超声速翼身组合式飞行器的射程,研究了采用不同翼面变形模式时,飞行器在马赫数3~8内的气动特性和翼面效率。针对典型的轴对称翼身组合式外形,采用Navier-Stokes方程进行数值模拟,对伸缩、变后掠和二维折叠三种变形模式下的外形在超声速及高超声速来流条件下进行模拟,并对升阻比、翼面单位面积升阻比和操稳特性进行分析。结果表明:在超声速及高超声速范围内,变后掠变形模式在宽速域内升阻比提高明显,同时具备优良的翼面效率及操稳特性,其在马赫数3~8范围内具有最优的综合性能。研究成果能对高超声速翼身组合式变形飞行器布局设计提供参考,具有一定的指导意义。     

稳定自组织网络结构中单点突变对网络稳定性影响

从战场恶劣环境通信设备无法正常通信的条件下,介绍了一种自组织网络稳定度的模型。通过比较自组织网络结构中微结构和巨结构的优缺点,动态地描述了结构间的聚合和裂解。基于结构分析,考虑单点突变对网络稳定性的影响,从时间因素策略方面,提出了一个基于预测最稳定链路生存时间的一种分布式成群策略。通过合理建模以及优化路由算法,尽可能地维护网络结构的稳定。     

欠驱动无人艇自适应滑模航迹跟踪控制

为便于航迹跟踪控制器设计和分析,引入坐标变换,建立典型的欠驱动无人艇数学模型;建立以航迹上自由点为原点的Serret-Frenet坐标系,实现对航迹跟踪误差变量的描述;通过将航迹参数的更新律作为一附加控制输入,实现了无人艇航迹跟踪控制系统由欠驱动向全驱动控制的转变,并利用改进视线导引算法实现了对无人艇位置的跟踪控制;考虑海流等外界扰动的影响,采用滑模自适应技术分别设计了无人艇航向和航速控制算法,实现了对航向角、纵向速度跟踪误差的镇定;基于李雅普诺夫理论和级联系统理论证明了航迹跟踪控制系统的一致半全局指数和一致全局渐进稳定性。仿真结果表明:所提出的控制算法可在一定程度上处理海流等外界扰动,跟踪效果良好,并且克服了角速度持续激励问题,能够同时实现对直线和曲线航迹的跟踪。